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Saturday, October 31, 2020

Can the Bills send the Patriots into rebuilding mode? - Boston.com

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Sean McDermott’s Bills would like nothing more than to send the Patriots into rebuilding mode before the season is half over and take a significant step toward their first AFC East title since 1995. The Patriots have tormented the Bills for years, sweeping both division matchups for the past three years and 27 times in their history.

This season, Buffalo has been the better team with a tougher schedule.

Can the Patriots muster enough resolve — and maybe a couple of touchdowns, too — and prove that this isn’t over? The season depends on the answer.

Kick it off, Bailey, and let’s get this one started …

Three players I’ll be watching

Stefon Diggs: How’s this for a win-win trade? In March, the Vikings traded Diggs, whom they had signed to a five-year, $72 million contract extension before the 2018 season, to the Bills for a wad of draft picks — a first-rounder, No. 22 overall, plus fifth- and sixth-round picks in 2020, as well as a fourth-rounder in 2021. (The Bills also got a 2020 seventh-rounder with Diggs.)

Diggs has been everything the Bills hoped. He built rapid chemistry with quarterback Josh Allen, and through seven games ranks third in the league in receptions (48), is tied for third in targets (70), and is fourth in receiving yards (603).

But the Vikings must be satisfied with the deal, too. Coach Mike Zimmer has said that despite some salary-cap issues, the team had no plans to trade Diggs until Buffalo offered a bushel of picks — including that No. 22 selection, which the Vikings used on rookie receiver Justin Jefferson. That looks like an exceptional decision.

Jefferson, who ranks as Pro Football Focus’s top-rated rookie at any position, has played one fewer game than Diggs but has just 66 fewer receiving yards (537). The Bills should not lament the trade whatsoever — Diggs is the kind of well-rounded veteran receiver they needed and the Patriots should covet right now — but it’s rare to see a deal that involves players at the same position work out so well for both sides.

Stephon Gilmore: I’ll confess to being not that fond of the “Hey, Look Which Athlete’s House Is For Sale Now!” genre of sports-content aggregation, though I suppose I’ll take it over writing (or reading) a post about Tom and Gisele’s daily whereabouts. And I must admit, sometimes there is a clue to be found there in the Zillow listings. There seemed to be with Brady, who put his house in Brookline up for sale in August 2019 (it went unsold) and now resides at Chez Jeter in Tampa.

It certainly seems like reports that the home Gilmore and his wife own in Foxborough is on the market could foreshadow a trade for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.

Gilmore has been good this year but not great, and he should have appeal on the trade market if the Patriots are in punt-the-season mode after Sunday. Keep it in mind as he chases Diggs around that this may be the last game we see him play as a Patriot. If so, he met every expectation that came with the five-year, $65 million deal he signed in March 2017.

Jakobi Meyers: Given the projected windy, rainy conditions, the Patriots shouldn’t be putting the ball in the air much anyway. But when Cam Newton does throw, who will be on the other end, with Julian Edelman (knee) and N’Keal Harry (concussion) out? Stanley Morgan is not walking through that door, people.

Meyers, who revealed this past week that he once played for Newton’s seven-on-seven youth team, had his moments against the 49ers, with four catches for 60 yards.

Grievance of the week

Has Tom Brady always been this weird, this clueless about the outside world? Or are we just noticing it more — or more willing to acknowledge it — now that he’s no longer hanging up banners as the Patriots quarterback?

It’s probably closer to the latter, with fans understandably reluctant to acknowledge that he changed as he became more committed to the TB12 branding or lifestyle or whatever. When someone plays as well as he did into his 40s, it’s reasonable to give him some leeway on what he believes works for him.

But there’s no denying it now — he’s weird. Having his pal Tony Robbins — the motivational speaker/lifestyle coach with some baggage of his own — talk to Antonio Brown was odd.

Claiming he wasn’t the driving force behind bringing Brown to Tampa was odd, too. It’s apparent he’s not just Tom the QB; he’s Tom the GM, and probably Tom the Coach as well. Own the transaction, man.

But the grievance here comes from something more detrimental than being just famous-guy weird or naively enticed by motivational jibber-jabber. Brady posted something on Instagram Tuesday that was shockingly ill-informed, and he should be embarrassed.

In an Instagram story, he claimed that more people have died by suicide than from COVID-19 over the past two months. “More suicide deaths than coronavirus deaths last two months,” wrote Brady. “So wash your hands and wear your masks but don’t forget to be nice to people and look after yourself.”

Nice sentiment at the end. Shamefully ignorant one at the beginning. The claim was false, as PolitiFact, a Poynter Institute-run site dedicated to countering misinformation with the truth, pointed out. “The point is, no matter which recent months you take, COVID-19 has killed far more people than suicide has per month historically,” PolitiFact concluded.

PolitiFact marked it false. Which was a stark contrast to the last word Brady wrote on the ignorant post, in white type against a black background, larger than the other words: Truth.

Key matchup

Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Patriots edge defenders

Allen made tremendous improvement last season, his second in the NFL, after an erratic rookie season. He led the Bills to a 10-6 record and a playoff berth, doubled his touchdown passes from 10 to 20, cut his interceptions from 12 to 9, and even led the NFL in game-winning drives (5).

Much to his credit, he has made another leap forward this year. He’s thrown 16 touchdown passes to just 4 picks, and his passing yardage (2,018) should surpass his total from his rookie year (2,074) sometime in the first half Sunday.

After so many quarterback flops through the years — including first-rounders J.P. Losman and E.J. Manuel — the Bills have found their guy.

But there is reason for skepticism about his ability to throw Sunday. While Allen owns a rocket arm, the weather is supposed to be miserable, he has been more turnover-prone lately (three interceptions and a lost fumble in the last three weeks), and the Patriots have not found it difficult to befuddle him in the past. He’s completed just 48.4 percent of his passes in three games against the Patriots, with three touchdowns and five interceptions, all losses.

Allen would seem to be a bigger threat to the Patriots on the run. The 49ers exposed a quickness deficit on the edges of the Patriots defense last Sunday, mostly with a short passing game and the relentless running of Jeff Wilson.

Allen, who moves much too fast for someone his size (6 feet 5 inches, 237 pounds), has a remarkable ability to make plays on the perimeter in the running game. He has picked up 204 yards and three touchdowns this season on the ground after rushing for 1,141 yards and 17 touchdowns over his first two seasons.

John Simon, Chase Winovich, and the edge of the Patriots defense could have their hands full in trying to contain him.

Prediction

OR, WHERE HAVE YOU GONE, JOE CRIBBS?

Cam Newton, so dynamic in his first two games as a Patriot, has been dismal in his last two, throwing five interceptions, and connected for just 98 yards through the air last Sunday against a depleted 49ers secondary.

His timing and accuracy have been off, he hasn’t seen open receivers, and his mechanics have been almost Tebowian. He’s too talented and dedicated to be derailed like this, but it’s hard to believe all of the issues can be repaired immediately against a talented if injury-affected Bills pass defense (15th ranked, 236.2 yards per game).

The Patriots need to run Sunday. Run, run, and run some more. The weather is expected to be bad — not exactly conducive to repairing Newton’s problems. And the Bills, like the Patriots, are just adequate against the run (21st, 126.7 yards per game). The Chiefs ran for 245 yards against the Bills two weeks ago, the Titans plowed for 139 in a 42-16 rout in Week 5, and the Rams gained 167 yards on the ground in Week 3.

Newton (the Patriots’ leading rusher, with 244 yards and five touchdowns) must run the way he did in Week 1 against Miami (75 yards, two touchdowns). Damien Harris needs to be heavily involved. Running the ball, exerting their will, is the Patriots’ best chance. I’m just not sure it will quite be enough.

Bills 24, Patriots 20.

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The Link Lonk


October 31, 2020 at 04:00PM
https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2020/10/31/bills-patriots-unconventional-preview

Can the Bills send the Patriots into rebuilding mode? - Boston.com

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